This is What I’m Talking About

With the model described in the last post in mind (particularly the first formulation with overinvestment) check out this WSJ story from June 1st.

Steel prices began rising in the fourth quarter of 2009, after 18 months of lackluster demand and falling prices, as consumers began buying more cars and as government-stimulus projects led to the construction of more bridges and buildings. But the rate of increase is slowing and in some cases coming to a halt. Rebar prices in the U.S., which have risen each month since November, are flattening out.

and check out this graph ——>    

Then read this story from today.

Steel prices tumbled in June, and U.S. steel mills are responding by cutting production. Earlier this year they were ramping up capacity to meet the growth in demand they hoped would emerge from the economic recovery. Instead, demand has been spotty.